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Two quick estimates in one place: what a heat pump might cost to install for your size and system type, and what it would cost to run compared with what heats your home now. Everything runs in your browser; we don’t store anything you type.
Rough estimate before incentives
Estimated heating cost per year
How the installation estimate works
The installation estimate multiplies your system size in tons by the national average cost per ton for that system type, from EnergySage‘s marketplace data (updated March 19, 2026): about $3,790 per ton for ducted heat pumps, $9,163 for whole-home ductless mini-splits, and $6,407 for hybrid systems. The state figures are EnergySage’s average quotes for all system types, before and after incentives.
It’s a starting point, not a quote. Ductwork repairs, electrical upgrades, cold-climate equipment, high-efficiency models, and local labor rates can move the price a lot in either direction. Our heat pump cost guide explains each factor.
How the heating cost comparison works
- We convert the fuel you use into heat using the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s conversion factors: 100,000 BTU per therm of natural gas, 91,452 BTU per gallon of propane, 138,500 BTU per gallon of heating oil, and 3,412 BTU per kWh.
- We multiply by your current system’s efficiency to get the heat your home actually received.
- We divide that heat by 3,412 and by the heat pump’s seasonal COP to get the electricity a heat pump would use, then multiply by your electricity price.
The default electricity price is the EIA‘s 2025 U.S. average residential price of 17.30¢ per kWh. Default gas, propane, and oil prices are examples only; replace them with the prices on your bills. COP (coefficient of performance) is how many units of heat a heat pump delivers per unit of electricity. ENERGY STAR says air-source heat pumps can deliver up to three times more heat than the electricity they use; seasonal averages are lower in very cold climates.
How to get your numbers from your bills
- Natural gas: your bill shows therms (or CCF; 1 CCF of gas is roughly 1.036 therms based on EIA’s 1,036 BTU per cubic foot). Add up the heating months and subtract a typical summer month for each one to remove water heating and cooking.
- Propane and oil: add up the gallons delivered over a full year. If the same tank also heats water, subtract a rough share for that.
- Electric heat: compare winter kWh with a mild spring or fall month; the difference is roughly your heating use.
- Price per unit: divide the total of a bill (including delivery charges) by the units used. That “all-in” price gives the most realistic result.
What the results mean
If you heat with electric resistance, propane, or oil, the calculator will usually show large savings, because those are expensive sources of heat. Against natural gas the result often lands close to break-even and depends heavily on your gas and electricity prices and your climate. Our heat pump vs. furnace guide explains the break-even math, and dual fuel can be the best of both worlds in cold areas with cheap gas.
Before you buy, check what you can still get in incentives: the federal tax credit ended for systems installed after December 31, 2025, but some state and utility rebates remain. See our heat pump rebates by state, and use our installer guide to compare quotes.
Frequently asked questions
How accurate is this heat pump calculator?
It gives a reasonable first estimate. Installation prices use national averages per ton, and running costs depend on the fuel use, prices, and heat pump efficiency you enter. A contractor’s load calculation and written quotes are the only way to get exact numbers.
What COP should I use?
Use about 2.5 for a typical climate, 3.0 or higher for mild climates with an efficient variable-speed model, and around 1.8 for very cold climates. Lower COP means more electricity for the same heat.
Why does the calculator show a heat pump costing more than gas?
Where natural gas is cheap and electricity is expensive, a heat pump can cost slightly more to run for heating. It still replaces your air conditioner, and dual-fuel systems can use gas on the coldest days.
Does the calculator include rebates?
The state averages show EnergySage’s average after incentives for comparison. Check our rebates by state guide for programs open in your area.